Numbers

Please excuse me, dear reader; I'm going to use this blog as a diary for a moment.

I'm going to talk about politics ... but then, no, I'm not going to talk about politics.  Rather, I'm going to talk about why politics don't really matter.  I expect no one to listen.  But just now, I finally obtained a copy of one of my favourite all time speeches from a movie, a very, very obscure Quebecois language film from 1986 called Le Déclin de l'empire américain.

A little preparation before providing the speech.  These last six or eight years, there has been a sentiment growing that because this or that political group does a thing, it "destroys" or "takes down" or "ends" some part of government, or a political belief system, or the course of history or gawd knows what else.  And this has motivated a great many people to feel frightened, or livid, or the need to lash out, or otherwise suspend all faith in the world.  But see, in reality, all this sound and fury is just nonsense peddled by the media in order to peddle the media.  It doesn't mean anything.  And there is evidence for this.

Here is the quote, said out the outset of the film in Quebecois French.  I'm going to provide the original French first, because I have readers on this blog who speak French as their first language; and yes, some in Quebec:

"L'histoire n'est pas une science exacte. C'est une enquête continue sur la relation entre le passé et le présent. Il s'agit de comprendre comment les événements passés façonnent les réalités actuelles et les possibilités futures. Mais soyons honnêtes, l'histoire est souvent écrite par les vainqueurs. Ce sont les puissants qui dictent ce qui est retenu et ce qui est oublié. Et qu'est-ce qui détermine le pouvoir? Les chiffres.

"Prenez les Basques, par exemple. Un petit groupe, jamais très nombreux, vivant dans une région montagneuse éloignée avec peu de ressources. Malgré leur indépendance farouche et leur forte identité culturelle, ils étaient toujours à la merci de voisins plus grands et plus puissants. Dans l'histoire, les chiffres comptent. Si vous n'avez pas les chiffres, vous n'avez pas le pouvoir. C'est aussi simple que cela.

"Les chiffres nous disent qui gagne et qui perd. Ils déterminent la montée et la chute des populations, des économies et des empires. Les populations plus importantes peuvent soutenir des armées plus grandes, générer plus de richesse et exercer plus d'influence. Les économies qui peuvent produire plus de biens et de services peuvent commercer plus efficacement et prospérer. C'est pourquoi l'étude des chiffres est cruciale pour comprendre l'histoire.

"L'interprétation de l'histoire, donc, est un dialogue sans fin entre le présent et le passé, une recherche de sens dans un monde en perpétuel changement. Mais ce n'est pas seulement une question de dates et de faits; il s'agit d'analyser ces faits, de les comparer et de découvrir des motifs et des tendances. Les chiffres fournissent la précision et la rigueur dont nous avons besoin pour comprendre véritablement la dynamique du changement social, les flux et reflux des économies, la montée et la chute des empires.

"Sans les chiffres, l'histoire ne serait qu'une collection d'anecdotes, dépourvue de la profondeur analytique nécessaire pour une véritable compréhension. Ainsi, en tant qu'historiens, nous devons prêter attention aux chiffres, car ils nous disent beaucoup sur qui nous sommes et comment nous en sommes arrivés là."

And now, translated by chatGPT:

"History is not an exact science. It's a continuous investigation into the relationship between the past and the present. It’s about understanding how past events shape current realities and future possibilities. But let's face it, history is often written by the victors. The powerful ones dictate what gets remembered and what gets forgotten. And what determines power? Numbers.

"Take the Basques, for example. A small group, never very numerous, living in a remote, mountainous region with few resources. Despite their fierce independence and strong cultural identity, they were always at the mercy of larger, more powerful neighbors. In history, numbers matter. If you don’t have the numbers, you don’t have the power. It’s as simple as that.

"Numbers tell us who wins and who loses. They determine the rise and fall of populations, economies, and empires. Larger populations can sustain larger armies, generate more wealth, and exert more influence. Economies that can produce more goods and services can trade more effectively and prosper. This is why the study of numbers is crucial in understanding history.

"The interpretation of history, therefore, is an endless dialogue between the present and the past, a search for meaning in a constantly changing world. But it's not just about dates and facts; it's about analyzing those facts, comparing them, and discovering patterns and trends. Numbers provide the precision and rigor we need to truly understand the dynamics of social change, the ebb and flow of economies, the rise and fall of empires.

"Without numbers, history would be a mere collection of anecdotes, lacking the analytical depth required for true understanding. So, as historians, we must pay attention to the numbers, because they tell us a great deal about who we are and how we got here."

The question we have to ask ourselves is simply this: do we really think they're more numerous than we are?  Never mind who votes, or who seems to be in power, or what bafflegab the media sells, or all the shit that's designed to obfuscate the simple facts.  Of the numbers, which are dying out, and which are thriving?  Which, 40 years from now, when all the adult population older than 50 now either dies or becomes physically or mentally obsolete, is going to make the decisions?  When the seas roll in, and the forests blaze, and the people we're afraid of become more and more certainly wrong to the largest number of people, regardless of who votes, or who's "in charge," because no one's really in charge just because they sit in a desk and have people who tell them so ... who is going to be here?

How important are these folks, really, when they represent just 20% of the population, and the least significant part at that, the part that's going to be dead, along with me, by 2050.

Have a little perspective.  Pay attention to your people and your knowledge.  Do good.  Pass it along.  And ignore the show.  It's just going to go away and be replaced with another one, which won't matter either.  Nearly every person whose ever been alive is totally unknown to us; yet they did all the living and the working and the dying here.  Everyone else, everyone whose names we know, they were just passengers with time.