Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Say, Say, Say
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Judgement Calls
So, a few hours after writing my last post, I settled down to in bed to read some before going to sleep. I typically read between 20 and 30 minutes a night. Of course, I'm still reading Michael Lewis' The Undoing Project ... and right off, it punched me right between the eyes.
The book is talking about how things that have happened recently have much more effect on how we judge situations, because they're recent. For example, I was recently in a car accident; the first one I've experienced in 38 years (the last one was a "bump" also). While I know it's bogus, going out to the new car (we were covered by insurance), I can't get it out of my head that we're going to have another accident, and soon. It's there in my face. I tell myself there's no reason to think one will happen; I tell myself that even if one did, that's how statistics work. But in fact, the only thing that will shove this persistent feeling aside is time.
So then I read two quotes on two pages, one after the other, at the end of chapter six. Here's the first:
"What people did in many complicated real-life problems — when trying to decide if Egypt might invade Isreal, say, or their husband might leave them for another woman — was to construct scenarios. The stories we make up, rooted in our memories, effectively replace probability judgments. 'The production of a compelling scenario is likely to constrain future thinking,' wrote Danny and Amos. 'There is much evidence showing that, once an uncertain situation has been perceived or interpreted in a particular fashion, it is quite difficult to view it in any other way.'"
There. That's what I'm doing. I'm making up a "story." But can the reader see the implications this has for any social interaction? Right now, it's exactly what every pundit is doing discussing the recent American election: they're making up stories about the future based on the very flimsy, immediate incident in the recent past ... and doing it as though everything they're saying makes perfect sense. It's your mother, or maybe it's you, claiming that your knee hurts because there's a change in the weather; some bias you have about your knee, and some coincidence with a change in the weather you've experienced recently, assures you that your knee always hurts when the weather's changing. But it's just a bullshit story you're telling yourself, like the nagging feeling that I have about another car accident.
Once you embed yourself into that story, however, it's THE reality you can't dismiss. You've created your own bullshit and now you've bought in, and there's no path out, not mentally. What's more, according to research, we all do it. Once we've decided what the future's going to be, based on next to no evidence, THAT'S the future now ... for us. Not for anyone else, of course.
It's not that we go on the internet and get hauled into some conspiracy bubble that programs us and constantly reassures us about things we want to believe. It's that at some point we heard something, it made sense, and now we've locked onto that thing so hard we can't be argued out of it. It doesn't matter if there's a bubble or not. "We" are the bubble. It's a bubble of one person.
Near as I can tell, the solution is that when we have an uncertain situation, the one thing we absolutely must not do is to interpret that situation at all. Don't make a guess! Any guess we make is almost certain to be wrong, and if it happens that we come to believe that wrong guess, it's going to lead to bad places.
I think, too, there's application for the way situations arise with players in D&D. More often than not, as I introduce the players into some kind of danger, they begin to get themselves worked up over some specific kind of supreme danger that's only just popped into their minds. Suddenly, they're panicking before every door, certain that this next one's going to unleash something that'll kill the whole party. Quite a lot of the time, especially with parties that don't know me well, I have to stop the game and effectively say, "Buttercup does not get eaten by the sharks at this time." Everything's fine, guys. I'm not just going to kill you.
['course, I killed the offline party last week, so recent events might suggest that yes, I am going to kill you, but in fact I have no plans in that direction]
The practice of trying to "play the DM" encourages players to seek explanations for the DM's motives based on bad judgements. The reverse can happen just as easily, with the DM assuming the players' collective motives are completely at odds with the campaign. It demonstrates the importance of maintaining strong communication between all the participants.
Here's the second quote:
"The stories people told themselves, when the odds were either unknown or unknowable, were naturally too simple. 'This tendency to consider only relatively simple scenarios,' they concluded, 'may have particularly salient effects in situations of conflict. There, one's own moods and plans are more available to one that those of the opponent. It is not easy to adopt the opponent's view of the chessboard or of the battlefield.' The imagination appeared to be governed by rules. The rules confined people's thinking. It's far easier for a Jew living in Paris in 1939 to construct a story about how the German army will behave much as it had in 1919, for instance, than to invent a story in which it behaves as it did in 1941, no matter how persuasive the evidence might be that, this time, things are different."
It's incredibly important that the DM see the game from the player's point of view, and vice versa. This means having a very clear idea of why the DM wants to run the campaign. What is the DM getting out of it? I mean, specifically. The tendency, like the quote above, is to produce a super-simple explanation: "Why, the DM wants to have fun." How is that remotely reassuring? "Fun" might include killing off player characters; it might mean deliberately humiliating people; it might mean getting one's jollies by forcing people to sit through boring speeches while walking through empty room after empty room.
The same is true of the DM: why are the players here? What do they want? Is it good DMing if we set out to create some profound scenario that the players have no reason to like? Again, it's all communication. We know ourselves fairly well; we know why we're in this. We have to tell others. We have to explain ourselves out loud, and often, rather than reserving ourselves and making probability judgements without any idea of the probabilities.
As a player, you don't know what I'm doing as a DM. That's deliberate. To make the game exciting and unpredictable, and therefore rewarding, I have to withhold an immense amount of information. If I'm a good DM, then none of my scenarios are simple. As a player, this is something you have to trust. You have to believe that my first responsibility here is not my own fun, but the well-being of everyone present, with myself being no more important than anyone else. If you don't believe that, we're going to have problems. Your distrust will repeatedly manifest as a series of wrong, simplistic statements that you've decided to believe based on zero actual information. As a DM, I've got to address that. I need to know why you distrust me; why you think I have any agenda that's designed against you or any other player; and I've got to lay that distrust to rest. If I can't do that ... if I can't convince you that I'm trustworthy ... then we can't play together.
Likewise, I have to trust you. I have to believe you're not trying to undermine the game or the other players. I have to believe you're ready to act on the information your given, and not on information you've invented, as a player, on the fly. I have to know that you're here to play D&D and not some other game.
This could be a good explanation for why those who try a more complicated game run into such troubles. If we're participating together in a predictable module adventure, there are less opportunities for distrust. If you know that I'm running a module provided by a game company, then you don't have to trust that I built a good adventure; you only need to trust that I'm accurately presenting the game company's module. That's an easier assumption.
As a DM, running a module, I know, doesn't ask as much from you. I'm not laying my creativity on the line, I'm leaning on someone else's creativity. If the module doesn't work, I'm less invested. We, DM and player, can bitch together about the lousy module. It's not you bitching about my work. For a lot of people, especially those who find it hard to take criticism, that's a huge bonus.
It's not how I want to go. I don't want simple scenarios. I don't believe in easy, simple explanations. It's why I spend so long deconstructing D&D over and over. Because I don't believe that a game built almost entirely on human interaction can be simple. I don't think the probabilities that might come up can be known. At all. I think the best players are those who DON'T make judgements about the future based on what's just happened. I think the best strategy to employ, whether one is a player or a DM, is to take one's time and presuppose, "We'll see."
And no more than that.
What you remember about your past is more apt to warp the future than you realise.
Saturday, November 12, 2022
Representative
I wanted to write one more post in this long series, about education, but I'm afraid I'm dry. The basic idea was to educate your players how to be dungeon masters, in the sense of driving them to make their own adventures out of the guidelines provided by the game, but somehow I can't centre my thoughts on the subject. I'll have to pick it up later.
At present, I'm a bit frustrated by the American election, especially at what's "passing" for journalism ... as in, "toilet." I'm stunned that so many well-paid, long-standing political pundits are able to spectacularly misread, or staggeringly misrepresent, what's happening. A whackadoodle losing an election by a thousand votes is NOT "the country stepping back" ... it's factual evidence that the whackadoodles are ready to step up their game and win next time. We certainly haven't seen evidence that "the Republican party has to return to its roots now." I mean, wtf. For the record, the Democrats have LOST. Even if it turns out they keep the house and senate by paper-thin margins, if this is the best you can do with two years of running the country after an attempted coup by the other side ... fuck. I mean, um ... fuck. Some days, I just want to scream and scream and scream. Everyone lost. Especially the country.
Changing the subject. I haven't a post of my own, so I'll steal one.
I'm reading a book by Michael Lewis that follows the work of Danny Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who proposed the term "heuristics" in the 1970s, around the time D&D was born. It's a fascinating read and utterly misrepresented by the wikipedia article, which seems to have been written by someone who hasn't read the book. The first five pages suggests the words, "revisits Lewis' interest in market inefficiencies," but since the next 190 do absolutely nothing to discuss this subject, I suspect foul play.
Essentially, the theme of Tversky's and Kahneman's work (they switched their names around with every paper) is that we don't know what we think we know. That is because we base our guesses about people and events and things on what we think is true, which in fact leads us to be wrong about everything. I'll quote briefly from the book:
"When people make judgments, they argued [Kahneman & Tversky], they compare whatever they are judging to some model in their minds. How much do those clouds resemble my mental model of an approaching storm? How closely does this ulcer resemble my mental model of a malignant cancer? Does Jeremy Lin match my mental picture of a future NBA player? Does that belligerent German political leader resemble my idea of a man capable of orchestrating genocide? The world's not just a stage. It's a casino, and our lives are games of chance. And when people calculate the odds in any life situation, they are often making judgments about similarity — or (strange new word!) representativeness. You have some notion of a parent population: 'storm clouds' or 'gastric ulcers' or 'genocidal dictators' or 'NBA players.' You compare the specific case to the parent population."
What happens is that, in fact, we don't really know storm clouds or ulcers or players as well as we think we do. This ends up in our making a decision about something that sounds absolutely dead on to us, but is completely, totally wrong in practice. For example ...
Once you played with someone who fudged dice and the games were pretty good. You caught the DM fudging and the explanation you got back sounded "reasonable." The game was, like I said, "pretty good." You made the connection that "pretty good" = "dice fudging" ... and this was supported by meeting other interesting and cool people who also fudged dice and for the same reason. You never actually played in any of their campaigns, but you assume from your representativeness that their games were probably also pretty good.
So, you fudge dice yourself. Because that's how your best representative DMs in your past did it. You have no actual knowledge if your game is "pretty good," but you assume it must be since you fudge dice. But then one day, for no specific reason, people drift away from your game and it ends. Why? Well, you make up reasons based on your past experience with players. Players are busy, you tell yourself. Players have other things to do. Sometimes, players don't stay around. People quit the game all the time. You absolutely DON'T question any of the practices you maintain as a DM, because those are the practices that other DMs — whom you don't play with anymore, for reasons — used. It never occurs to you that one of your players discovered that you were cheating and decided to tell the others when you weren't there. And because they found the behaviour so disingenuous and repulsive, they decided not to confront you.
But you're fine. You're telling yourself now that Alexis is a person too, and makes judgements based on his representativeness, which is obviously wrong, because he's just basing his opinions on what he thinks is true, based on HIS past. That has nothing to do with your past.
I admit, it's frustrating ... but this is why the book about Tversky and Kahneman is interesting. It challenges us to think through the difference between making a decision based on reality and one based on judgement.
[notice: when I quote the American book, I spell the word "judgment," but when I write in the King's English, I spell the word "judgement"; I've done it both ways over the last fifty years and I've finally decided I'm a Canadian. That's why I spell it "realise," "armour" and "manoeuvre" now]
Let me give you a simple example, one not fraught with arbitrary Alexis-bullshit judgements. I'll continue to use examples I haven't found in Lewis' book, but I've only reached page 190.
Suppose that you're doing a very difficult multiple choice exam ... and although you've studied, it's very difficult and many of the questions and answers have been deliberately designed to mislead you.
About halfway through a four-hour exam, starting with question #117, you start to notice that every correct answer is (a). You start to notice when it's four in a row, and soon enough it's eight in a row and then twelve in a row. What's going on? Glancing over each question, you're never quite certain of which is the exact right answer, because in many cases throughout the whole test, it really could be the choice you didn't pick. And now you've stopped and looked at this list of 12 (a)'s in a row and you're seriously questioning your judgement. Why?
Because, basically, if you were making a multiple choice test, it wouldn't occur to you to make 12 answers in a row all be (a)'s. You'd mix them up. You wouldn't decide to make every answer an (a) like this. Which means, since you wouldn't do it, obviously, neither would the professor, or the tester. Multiple choice exams just are done this way. Right?
Is it right? Is it logical to go back over your answers for the last twelve questions, wasting time, and making sure that you're absolutely correct with every one? Is it logical to change your answers on some of them just to break the streak. Is that good thinking on your part, or is it bad thinking?
Are you protecting yourself, or are you fucking yourself?
Who's to say the prof wouldn't put the string of (a) responses there just to screw with you? The answer to that is plain. You're there. And you're sure the prof, whom maybe you like, or maybe you respect, wouldn't pull a rotten trick like that. Only ... is it a "trick?"
You're supposed to know the right answer. If you know it, then what difference does it make how many times it comes up (a)? Isn't knowing the answer what we're testing you for? The only reason why you'd want to go back and doubt yourself is because you don't, in fact, know the right answer. You're guessing. And the pattern that your guessing is creating is what's stumped you. Not the test and not the prof.
For me, this is the quintessential underlying basis of Kahneman and Tversky's work. I haven't read this yet but I'm certain (representativeness) that it's coming. It's not just that we guess wrong when we're asked to make a judgement, it's that we're certain we're right. We don't evaluate the possibilities beyond our immediate gut-judgement. "That's a storm," we say, even though we're talking out of our ass, and when the storm fails to materialise, we ignore it. Usually, we think, we're right. But are we ... "usually"? Or is it just that we want to be usually right? Because judging by the work I'm reading, I think we decide what we are usually and then ignore any expectation of living up to that claim.
So when I tell you that more people play 5th edition than any other, you think in your head and say, "Yeah, that's probably true." But what's that based on? The people you've met? If, like me, you meet people who actually play D&D, it happens in very specific places like game stores and promoted events. BUT ... what sort of players show up at game stores and promoted events? All of them? I don't know. Because I don't know how many people actually play this game. Nobody does. I have numbers from the company, and from journalists who talk to the company, but the company HAS reasonably expected ulterior motives.
I'm not saying that 5th edition isn't the most popularly played edition. I AM saying that, statistically, we have absolutely no idea whatsoever. Because we haven't got statistics. We've got judgements based on seeing a particular group of people participating in a particular game space ... which is deliberately organised to appeal to that particular group of people. As such, factually, we have nothing.
But that doesn't keep us from stating as though it is a fact that 5th edition is the most popular. And because it's stated as a fact online rather continously, it sounds like a fact. But this doesn't make it one. After all, it's easy to find hundreds of comments by people who say they don't play 5th any more, or that they never played 5th. Are we sure that number isn't higher than the number who say they do play 5th?
I don't know. I have reason to doubt either answer.
We live in an age where we're expected to give an opinion about things and where we expect that opinion to be (1) treated as accurate, based on our "knowledge," and (b) respected. Most of the time, if we quote a source for that opinion, it's someone else's opinion ... and often the "someone else" is plainly someone who knows nothing for certain. If we're not treated as knowledgeable and if we're not respected, we get mad, we block the other and we go looking for people who agree with us.
Thanks to the internet, these can be easily found. Most of the time.
I see no particular reason why anything I say should be treated as "knowledge." I have no source material for anything I write about D&D. I cannot for certain say that when a firefighter learns to deal with complex situations through pattern recognition, that's also what a dungeon master is doing. I feel fairly certain the firefighter's pattern recognition is real, since respected firefighters give lectures to other firefighters and not the general public. In other words, their knowledge about what they're doing isn't merely representative, it's demonstrable.
That's key. What I say means zip compared to what another DM says, who has applied my methods and discovered they either work or don't work. And this is interesting. My inbox is NOT stuffed with people who've tried what I said and come back to me with, "Yep, tried it, and you don't know shit Alexis." What I occasionally get is, "I'm not going to try that, because it won't work."
But what I most often get is, "I finally tried it ... and wow. My players love it."
Is that an ego-boost for me? Sure. I'm human. Does it mean I'm always right? NO. It doesn't even mean I'm ever right. It means I'm valuable as a resource enough of the time to make others examine my words for value. Others are bringing their own judgements to my words and they're carrying out the experimentation. I don't know what they're actually doing at their tables. I'm not there. As such, how can I ever be "right" in a sense that's reliable?
I know that what I'm doing works for me. I'm outlining for others why it works, how it works, what I've done to make it work and what I plan to do. The rest, as ever, is for others to DO.
So I'm not certain I'm right. I could very well be wrong. The only thing I'm certain of is that everyone who thinks I'm wrong is ALSO wrong ... for other reasons.
I'm trying to be right. They're trying to be representative.
Friday, November 11, 2022
Budapest Sanjak, east of Budapest
Thursday, November 10, 2022
Northern Hills, south of Kovesd
Wednesday, November 9, 2022
Wine
Tuesday, November 8, 2022
Monday, November 7, 2022
Locution
Saturday, November 5, 2022
Tonight's Running
Thursday, November 3, 2022
Language
Entracte
"The route taken by Hawkeye lay across those sandy plains, relived by occasional valleys and swells of land, which had been traversed by their party on the morning of the same day, with the baffled Magua for their guide. The sun had now fallen low toward the distant mountains; and as their journey lay through the interminable forest, the heat was no longer oppressive. Their progress, in consequence, was proportionate; and long before the twilight gathered about them, they had made good many toilsome miles on their return.
"The hunter, like the savage whose place he filled, seemed to select among the blind signs of their wild route, with a species of instinct, seldom abating his speed, and never pausing to deliberate. A rapid and oblique glance at the moss on the trees, with an occasional upward gaze toward the setting sun, or a steady but passing look at the direction of the numerous water courses, through which he waded, were sufficient to determine his path, and remove his greatest difficulties. In the meantime, the forest began to change its hues, losing that lively green which had embellished its arches, in the graver light which is the usual precursor of the close of day."
There is the text, like thousands of other texts scattered in a hundred languages in the long, winding path of human history. A travelled route; knowledge of the land that permits choosing the correct path and signs that the forest is changing as the route is gone over. The gripping pace of the text, published in 1840, sentence upon graceful sentence, pulling the reader along. In the story, pursued and pursuers, struggling to find rest, food, enduring the savagery of the wilderness, outwitting and overpowering the enemy. Translated to D&D, the party struggling to rescue an ally, or one of their own; blindly rushing into the wilderness, hoping to happen upon the enemy in time. The DM, painting each scene — and not one! But scene after scene, using the changes to lay out possibilities of ambush, hunting for a sign, desperately crossing an open lake in potentially full view of an enemy ... never knowing exactly what horrific way the collection of scenes will play out.
To build these scenes from a start of some kind, the DM must invent a thread. Something that's found, someone that's encountered, some event that's witnessed, with a strong enough impact to make the players eventually engage. How or why they should depends on what thread we invent; but it is only one thread. As the players continue, we invent others, inserting each into the right moment, creating amounts of curiosity, indignation, compassion for others in pain, avarice ... or whatever it takes to make the players wade in and start swinging.
That I don't have a simple formula that allows the gentle reader to "just do it," I apologise. There is no formula. 6,000 years of building stories and tales, no one has yet invented a "formula." Steal a scene. Steal a dozen scenes. Cheat the players by making them believe they're seeing something new. And if you do this for 20 years, you'll learn instinctively how these things are patterned, and how they're made without having to steal. But if anyone here thinks I'm going to whip out a simple guide for "how to be really clever in making up shit," you're a gawddamned fool.
If the reader is able to apply one tiny thread of the fabric I'm trying to describe, so that it raises one player's eyebrow, you will have accomplished a miracle. You will have done something for which there is no class, no coursework, no handbook, no youtube video, no blog post, no shortcut. You will have done something artistic.
Don't expect so much so soon.
It'll come.




